Technical

Technical — The Price Picture

The fundamentals have been telling one story; the tape has been telling another — louder. HEN3 sits 8.2% below its 200-day, just 6% off the 52-week low, with realized volatility now above its 5-year p80 band. A fresh golden cross printed in December 2025, but price has not confirmed. Stance below.

Price snapshot

Last close (EUR)

65.48

YTD return

-6.00

1-year return

-4.35

52-week position

6.2

Beta vs EWG (3y)

0.21

**Volume coverage caveat.** The staged European price file arrives without trading volume (all zeros), so the volume-and-conviction anchor below is limited to a qualitative read of recent price action. Treat turnover-based signals as unavailable for HEN3 on this feed.

1. Ten-year price with 50 / 200-day moving averages

Most recent signal: **golden cross on 15 Dec 2025** (50-day crosses above 200-day) — but the shares have since broken back below both averages. The prior death cross (31 Mar 2025) remains the dominant signal of the last 12 months.

Price is unambiguously below the 200-day SMA (65.48 vs 71.31, a 8.2% gap). The ten-year chart frames the stakes: HEN3 topped near 130 in 2017, spent 2018–2022 in a grinding downtrend, base-built around 60–70 through 2022–2023, briefly reclaimed the 80-handle in early 2024, and has now given back almost the entire rally. This is a multi-year downtrend that has NOT yet invalidated.

2. Relative strength vs German equities (EWG)

HEN3 has lagged German equities by roughly 56 percentage points over three years — the company is at ~88 rebased while EWG sits near 145. The gap is widening, not narrowing. No sector ETF is available for this German name; peer basket is not populated. The relative-strength verdict is the strongest single finding on this page: whatever the operating story, the market is persistently marking HEN3 down versus the local benchmark.

3. Momentum panel — RSI and MACD (last 18 months)

Current RSI is 39.4 — below neutral (50) but not oversold (30). MACD histogram has flipped positive in the past fortnight (current +0.35, signal line still below zero), consistent with a short-covering bounce after the March decline. Near-term read: a weak tactical bounce inside a bearish structure. Neither indicator is flashing signal strong enough to front-run the 200-day.

4. Volume & conviction

**Volume file shows zero turnover across the full 10-year window.** Unusual-volume spikes are unavailable (`unusual_volume.json.top_spikes` is empty). On a liquid large-cap like Henkel this is a data-source artifact, not an illiquid stock — but the conviction check cannot be performed from this feed. Treat any "volume confirmation" claim as untestable here.

5. Volatility regime — 30-day realized vol, 5 years

**HEN3 is in the "stressed" regime.** Current 30-day realized vol is 23.7%, above the 10-year p80 of 21.8%. Calm (p20) is 13.2%. The tape is pricing more risk than usual, consistent with the break below 200-day and the lag versus local benchmarks.

6. Technical scorecard

No Results

Stance — 3-to-6 month horizon

Bearish. Four of six dimensions score negative; the only non-negative reads are momentum (a feeble MACD-histogram flip that has NOT yet pulled price above the 50-day) and volume (which we can't score). The market is paying a German large-cap 6% off its 52-week low, 56 points behind EWG over three years, in a stressed-vol regime — that is not accidental. Until price reclaims the 200-day, the path of least resistance is lower.

Level above (would flip the thesis constructive): €71.50 — reclaim the 200-day SMA on a close-through.

Level below (would confirm continuation): €64.25 — a close beneath the 52-week low would open the post-2022 base at €57–€60 as the next measured-move target.